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IDC ATLAS COLUMN · LEASE WATCH

Gigawatt Leases Are Reshaping the Data Center Market.

The largest cloud and internet customers are reserving power years before delivery. Contracted megawatts offer visibility, while energization, financing and customer concentration decide how much of that backlog becomes billable.

A hyperscale data center campus linked by long-term capacity contracts
IDC Atlas original editorial cover · Lease Watch

Demand from the largest internet and cloud platforms is landing in third-party data-center contracts years before the underlying power is delivered. Traditional hyperscalers are often described only as “investment-grade hyperscale customers.” AI cloud operator CoreWeave is named in several of the largest and most transparent agreements.

The disclosure gap matters. An anonymous tenant can still support a binding contract, but outsiders cannot build a reliable customer-by-customer demand map. Term, payment commitment, CapEx responsibility, energization schedule and termination rights tell investors more about cash-flow quality than the logo alone.

Four agreements show how the contract scale has changed

APPLIED DIGITAL × COREWEAVE400 MW

Polaris Forge 1 has 400MW under contract for a base term of roughly 15 years and about $11 billion of disclosed contracted revenue. At the start of 2026, 100MW was energized and 300MW remained under construction.

Investor materials
CORE SCIENTIFIC × COREWEAVE590 MW

Five campuses carry about 590MW of leased customer power, primarily under roughly 12-year take-or-pay contracts. More than 185MW was active and billable in March 2026.

Company disclosure
DIGITAL REALTY × 3 HYPERSCALERS288 MW

Three 96MW Northern Virginia facilities are fully leased to three distinct investment-grade hyperscale customers for 15 years, with 3.6% annual rent escalators. The tenants remain unnamed.

Company release
VNET × LEADING INTERNET CUSTOMER510 MW

VNET disclosed a 510MW order in Greater Beijing from a leading internet customer. The company did not identify the tenant, leaving delivery and utilization as the relevant proof points.

Q1 2026 results

Measurement note: contracted power, IT load, campus utility capacity and billable capacity are different measures. We preserve each company's disclosed basis; the numbers should not be added as current revenue or operating capacity.

Long terms lock in demand and redistribute risk

  1. 01
    Pre-leasing and phased delivery

    Customers reserve capacity before operation, while developers deliver in 50–100MW phases. Backlog becomes revenue only after energization and acceptance.

  2. 02
    Take-or-pay and credit support

    Minimum payments reduce vacancy risk. Deposits, parent guarantees and termination clauses determine how much protection survives stress.

  3. 03
    CapEx responsibility

    Customer-funded, developer-funded and shared structures create very different financing needs, project returns and balance-sheet pressure.

  4. 04
    Power and cost pass-through

    Utility pass-through, delay allocation and rent escalators determine how much of the headline contract value reaches operating profit.

Similar leases create different company risk profiles

APLD / CORZ

Large contracts create multi-year visibility. Customer concentration, construction finance and on-time energization dominate the risk. Billable MW should be read beside MW under construction.

Delivery update

DLR / EQIX

Tenants and markets are more diversified. Digital Realty reported a nine-month average signing-to-commencement lag and a $1.9 billion annualized backlog in Q2; Equinix combines interconnection with xScale campuses.

DLR Q2 2026Equinix FY2025

VNET / GDS

Large orders validate demand in core clusters, while tenant identity and contract detail remain limited. VNET's utilized MW and GDS's committed area and delivery cadence offer the cleaner time series.

VNET Q1 2026GDS 2025 20-F

A lease needs three confirmations

01 · CONTRACTEDIs the agreement binding?

Check term, minimum payment, guarantee, termination rights, CapEx responsibility and utility pass-through.

02 · ENERGIZEDDid power arrive on time?

Compare MW under construction, energized MW, build budget and original delivery schedule for slippage and overruns.

03 · BILLABLEHas revenue started?

Track billable capacity, utilization, backlog conversion and depreciation growth relative to revenue.

The thesis weakens when tenants defer capacity, utility delivery keeps slipping, developer financing costs rise sharply, or energized capacity fails to become billable. A large contract establishes the starting point; execution produces the cash flow.

IDC ATLAS VIEW

Scarce data-center assets over the next two years will combine secured power, on-time delivery and enforceable contracts. Contracted gigawatts show scale; billable megawatts show the result.